Scientists Find Measles Likely To Become Endemic in the US Over Next 20 Years
1 min read
Summary
A new study by epidermologists at Stanford University has warned that measles, rubella, polio and diphtheria – all of which the US had previously eliminated – could become more common, as vaccination rates for US kindergarteners decline.
The study used a computer model to predict the likelihood of each disease becoming endemic again in the coming decades, depending on vaccination rates.
For measles, the model predicted an 83% chance of re-establishing itself as a regularly occurring disease in the US within the next two decades if current rates continue; over the next 25 years, it estimated over 850k cases, 170,000 hospitalizations and 2,500 deaths.
The model predicted that rubella, polio and diphtheria were less likely to re-establish themselves, but still gave probabilities of 81%, 50% and 17% respectively.
