SpaceX has encountered problems with its Starship rockets during testing, leading some to question whether the company’s luck with its tests will run out at some point.
Space expert Wendy Whitman Cobb comments that this degree of failure is not unusual during a development process, but the Starship tests are different because they have a chaotic and und forward path from failing often to failing less and less as time went on.
She notes that historically, space agencies or legacy aerospace companies have taken their time with rocket development and tested only when confident of a successful outcome, but SpaceX has chosen to test, fail, and iterate frequently.
This approach has led to the company’s success in developing the reusable Falcon 9 rocket but also causes frequent and very public failures, with local environmental damage and disputes with regulatory agencies.
Starship’s development is different from previous developments as the company is trying to debut an entirely new rocket with new engines and make it reusable, which presents a difficult engineering challenge.
SpaceX is laser-focused on getting to Mars, but Cobb doubts that the company will reach that goal anytime soon, commenting that “I seriously doubt whether they will make it.